The beginning of the year sees the intended if uncertain marriage of Australis/Galaxy and Foxtel bringing together two great families of programming - Australis/Galaxy's 8 or so channels and Foxtel's 12 or so - into an almost unbeatable 20 or more cable channels selling to viewers well below actual cost. It also sees rival Optus Vision's 12 channel and telephony service going through a potentially fatal crisis of confidence as the all-powerful Foxstralis alliance prepares to carry its signals Australia-wide via cable, microwave and satellite. From there it's only a short satellite television hop to Asia - and vice versa.

Optus Vision can't even use its own satellites until mid-1997 when more government restrictions end. Its delivery of some of the arguably best cable programming will be confined to relatively smaller rural and urban markets hemmed in by local councils concerned about overhead wires and, more importantly, by Rupert Murdoch and Kerry Packer's clever strategies to thwart its moves at every turn.

If Optus Vision is to last the year out it will be by virtue of government intervention and support, certainly not because of the benefits of competition or the newly-created Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC). With no clear way to understand and facilitate the complex game of new media alliances that stretch across the realms of government, business and domestic communications, computing and entertainment the canny media mogul can step nimbly around government policies of service quality, a creative culture, media diversity and equity.

Where does that leave we viewers?

Such a situation does provide us with a choice of broadcast network television or pay cable television at a competitive price. However, that price is artificially cheap and must someday soon increase. And with some of the best television around now only available to those who can or will pay for television then our broadcast networks could lose many of their best features. Lastly, with many rival cable system standards, most of us will only really ever be able to choose one pay provider - the one that gets to you first.

1996 will be an important year for the Australian television industry and consequently for us, the Australian television viewer. Two government inquiries - one into broadcast television and one into the future of telecommunications - will combine to provide the last great opportunity to sort out the last three years of government confusion over the direction of our communications systems. To add to the mix, the global turbulence in communications and media and the 1996 federal election made it even more difficult for a government trying to create the right conditions for a healthy industry. In times like these, gamblers stand to benefit the most.